A correlated same-game parlay (SGP) combines multiple outcomes from the same game where winning one makes it more likely the others win too.
Why This Matters
In a standard parlay, legs are priced as independent events. But within a single game, outcomes are often correlated. Sportsbooks should reduce the payout to reflect that — and they do, but not always perfectly.
Classic SGP Correlations
Quarterback passing yards + team passing touchdowns: If a QB has 350 yards, he probably threw multiple TDs.
Running back rushing attempts + team first half win: In a game where a team takes a lead, they run more.
High-scoring game + WR yards: If total points are high, individual skill players often benefit.
Bad weather + unders + running back yards: Poor conditions favor run-heavy play — correlated with under.
How Books Price SGPs
Modern SGP engines calculate correlation and reduce the odds accordingly. You're not getting true parlay math on SGP — the book has already priced out most of the correlation advantage.
The edge: Find correlations the algorithm has underweighted. Weather-related correlations and game-script correlations are the most frequently mispriced.
[See SGP vs. individual bet performance in your Oddible account →]
