Key numbers are the most common margins of victory in NFL games. Knowing them determines where spreads have the most value and where half-points matter most.
The Top NFL Key Numbers
3: The most common margin of victory. A field goal decides more games than any other margin. ~14-16% of NFL games end with a 3-point margin.
7: A touchdown and PAT. ~8-9% of games end with a 7-point margin.
10: TD + FG combo. ~4-5% of games.
6, 4, 14: Secondary key numbers with meaningful frequency.
Why Half-Points Matter at Key Numbers
Getting +3 vs. +2.5 in a close game changes your outcome on every game that ends with a 3-point differential. Over a season, that's 15-16% of games where the half-point determines your result.
The value of the +3 vs. +2.5 half-point is roughly 1.2-1.5% in win probability — significant enough to justify paying extra juice to cross a key number.
Spread Setting Around Key Numbers
Books are aware of key number clustering. When a spread is at 3 or 7, the line becomes very stable and sharp action on both sides is balanced. When a spread is at 2.5 or 3.5, both sides have different positions relative to the key number.
Practical Application
Always check whether a spread crosses 3 or 7. Moving from +2.5 to +3 is worth more in juice than moving from +3 to +3.5.
[Track your ATS performance at key numbers with Oddible →]
