Your break-even win rate is the minimum percentage of bets you need to win to avoid losing money. This changes based on the odds of your bets. Understanding your break-even rate is essential for knowing whether your betting approach is sustainable.
The Break-Even Formula
Break-even win rate = Risk / (Risk + Profit)
At -110 odds: You risk $110 to win $100. Break-even = $110 / ($110 + $100) = $110 / $210 = 52.38%
At -105 odds: You risk $105 to win $100. Break-even = $105 / ($105 + $100) = $105 / $205 = 51.22%
At +110 odds: You risk $100 to win $110. Break-even = $100 / ($100 + $110) = $100 / $210 = 47.62%
Quick Reference Table
| Odds | Break-Even Win Rate | |———|——————————-| | -120 | 54.5% | | -115 | 53.5% | | -110 | 52.4% | | -105 | 51.2% | | +100 | 50.0% | | +105 | 48.8% | | +110 | 47.6% | | +120 | 45.5% | | +150 | 40.0% | | +200 | 33.3% |
The Practical Implication
A bettor who wins exactly 50% of -110 bets is losing money. They need 52.4% to break even. The 2.4% gap is real and significant over hundreds of bets.
A bettor who wins exactly 50% of +100 bets is also at break-even — even money requires 50%.
A bettor who wins 45% of bets at +150 average odds is profitable — the break-even is only 40%.
Why This Changes Your Thinking
The percentage of bets you win isn't meaningful without knowing the average odds. A 45% win rate can be great (+EV at plus-money odds) or terrible (-EV at minus-money odds). Calculate your break-even for your average odds, then compare it to your actual win rate.
[See your win rate vs. break-even calculated automatically in Oddible →]
