MVP futures are one of the most publicly distorted markets in sports betting — and the players who win awards rarely match who the public backed at the start of the season.
Award futures — MVP, Cy Young, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year — are available at most major sportsbooks across the NFL, NBA, and MLB. Here's how to approach them strategically.
Why MVP Markets Are Mispriced
MVP futures are set by public sentiment more than analytical projection. The players who command the most betting action in October are typically the biggest names heading into the season — not necessarily the players most likely to win based on projected performance.
Historically, across the NBA and NFL, the preseason favorite wins the MVP award roughly 25-30% of the time. Yet the favorite is often priced at 20-30% implied probability. This alone suggests the market is fairly efficient at the top — but the mid-tier (players priced at 10/1 to 30/1) is where the mispricings cluster.
Targeting the Right Player Profiles
For NBA MVP: the award goes overwhelmingly to players on top-4-seeded teams. A player on a team projected to win 45-50 games who leads the league in a box score category (scoring, assists, efficiency) is the prototype. Target this profile in the 10/1-25/1 range.
For NFL MVP: quarterbacks win approximately 90% of NFL MVPs. Quarterbacks on high-win-total teams projected at 11+ wins are the primary hunting ground. Skill position players win rarely — historical rate is under 10% over the past 20 years.
For MLB Cy Young: look at projected workload (innings) and strikeout rate. The Cy Young often goes to a pitcher with a dominant stretch drive rather than the best full-season numbers.
Hedging Award Futures Mid-Season
If a player you backed early is a clear front-runner by December (NBA) or Week 12 (NFL), hedging by betting the field or backing a close second can lock in a profit regardless of the final outcome.
Track your MVP futures and manage your award season positions with Oddible →
