Favorites win more games than underdogs — that's what makes them favorites. But do they win enough to justify the odds? And do they cover the spread more often? The answers might surprise you.
Favorite Win Rates by Sport
NFL: Favorites win approximately 63-65% of regular season games outright. But against the spread — accounting for the handicap — they cover at almost exactly 50%.
NBA: Favorites win roughly 66-67% of games. Against the spread, again nearly 50/50.
MLB: Favorites win around 55-57% of games. Against the moneyline (no spread in baseball), this means you need strong favorites to win more than implied to profit.
Soccer: The home team wins only 45% of matches outright. Draws and away wins each occur at meaningful rates.
Why ATS Is Nearly 50/50
The spread is specifically designed to create an even market. Oddsmakers adjust the number until they believe both sides have an approximately equal chance of covering. A team that's dominant gets a higher spread — if the Chiefs are clearly better than their opponent, the spread might be -10 rather than -3.
The vig (typically -110) is the book's profit, not the result of systematic favorites or underdogs winning more.
Heavy Favorites: The Value Problem
The real challenge: very heavy favorites (-300 or worse) need to win at 75%+ rates to be profitable at those prices. While they often perform well, they lose at a higher-than-expected rate given the odds. Smart bettors generally avoid heavy favorites moneyline as bad value.
[Track your favorite vs. underdog performance over time in Oddible →]
