Injuries are the most valuable information a sports bettor can track. How lines respond to injury news — and when — determines where the edges are.
The Timing of Injury Impact
Before any public news: If you know about an injury before it's public (rare and potentially against book rules), the line hasn't moved yet. Maximum value.
At initial report: Lines usually move 1-3 points on star player injuries immediately. If you're fast, you might still get a pre-move price.
By game day: Lines have fully absorbed the injury. The consensus number reflects the market's view. Most of the edge is gone.
The Rule of Thumb on Impact
| Player Type | Typical Line Impact | |——————-|——————————-| | Elite QB | 7-14 points | | Star RB | 3-7 points | | Key OL (multiple) | 2-4 points | | Elite CB | 1-3 points | | Star WR | 1-3 points |
Finding the Residual Edge
Sometimes a line doesn't fully adjust. If a key offensive lineman is injured and the book moves from -7 to -4, ask: is -4 actually correct? If your analysis says -2 is fair, there's still value.
Also watch for injury return — a player returning from injury can move a line 3-5 points if the book hasn't fully reflected it.
[Track injury-related bets and outcomes with Oddible →]
