The run line in MLB baseball is set at ±1.5 runs — it's the baseball equivalent of a point spread, but unlike NFL and NBA spreads, the number is always fixed at 1.5.
How the Run Line Works
Favorite on the run line (-1.5): They must win by 2+ runs for your bet to win. Win by exactly 1 = you lose.
Underdog on the run line (+1.5): They can lose by 1 run and you still win. Lose by 2+ = you lose.
How Run Line Pricing Works
Because you're requiring a higher threshold from the favorite, you get better odds:
- Moneyline favorite at -200 might be -115 on the run line (-1.5)
- Moneyline underdog at +170 might be -140 on the run line (+1.5)
The underdog run line is often listed as minus money because you're giving them a cushion (they can lose by 1). This makes it more likely for the underdog to cover, so the price reflects that.
When Run Lines Make Sense
Bet the favorite run line when:
- The starting pitcher is dominant and likely to go deep into the game
- The opponent's bullpen is weak (late-inning runs become likely)
- You believe in a decisive victory, not a nail-biter
Avoid the favorite run line when:
- It's a close pitching matchup where 1-run games are common
- The favorite's bullpen has struggled recently (can't protect leads)
First-5-Innings Run Lines
Some books offer run lines only for the first 5 innings — useful when you have a strong opinion on the starters but uncertainty about the bullpen.
[Track your run line vs. moneyline performance in Oddible →]
