Buying points lets you move a point spread or total in your favor — at a cost. Instead of paying -110 at a standard number, you pay more to get a better line. Whether this is worth it depends entirely on the numbers involved.
How Buying Points Works
Most sportsbooks allow you to move a spread by half-point increments, typically at a cost of 10-15 cents per half point. So instead of betting Chiefs -3 at -110, you could buy the Chiefs to -2.5 for around -125.
The question is whether the improved line is worth the increased price.
Key Numbers in NFL Betting
In football, certain margins of victory occur far more frequently than others. The most important:
- 3 points (field goal): Approximately 15-17% of NFL games land exactly on 3
- 7 points (touchdown): Approximately 9-10% of NFL games land exactly on 7
- 10 points: Secondary key number, approximately 6%
When you buy through a key number — moving from +2.5 to +3.5, crossing the 3 — you're getting significant value. Historical data shows that buying from +2.5 to +3.5 in the NFL is worth approximately 1.5% win probability, which at -130 to -135 is generally a positive expected value purchase.
When you're NOT crossing a key number — moving from +4 to +4.5, for example — buying points is generally not worth the extra cost.
Key Numbers in NBA and MLB
Basketball and baseball have different key number distributions. In the NBA, games rarely settle on exactly one number — the distribution is flatter. Buying half-points in basketball is generally not recommended. In MLB, the run line is already structured around a 1.5 run movement, and additional buying is rarely offered.
The Rule
Buy points when and only when you're crossing 3 or 7 in NFL. Avoid buying points in other situations — the math doesn't support the extra cost.
[Track your bought-point results separately in Oddible to see if you're getting value →]
