Arbitrage betting — arbing — involves betting both sides of a market at different sportsbooks to guarantee profit regardless of the outcome. The math makes it sound perfect: lock in a win no matter what happens. The reality involves more complexity.
How Arbitrage Works
Two sportsbooks price the same event differently:
- Book A: Team X moneyline at -105
- Book B: Team Y (the other team) moneyline at +115
On a standard -110/-110 market, both sides have 52.38% implied probability (total: 104.76%). In an arb, the sum of implied probabilities is under 100%, meaning the combined bets guarantee profit.
Example:
- Implied probability at Book A (-105): 51.2%
- Implied probability at Book B (+115): 46.5%
- Total: 97.7%
- Arb percentage: 2.3% guaranteed profit
On $1,000 total wagered, this arb nets approximately $23 guaranteed.
The Real Risks
Account limitations. Sportsbooks hate arbers. If you consistently bet into mispriced lines (which is what arbing requires), books will limit you quickly. Your maximum bet gets reduced to $20-50, making the activity nearly worthless.
Speed requirements. Arb opportunities are short-lived. Lines adjust in minutes — sometimes seconds. By the time you've placed the first bet, the second book may have already moved.
Margin of error. If you calculate the bet sizes wrong, or if one leg gets rejected (common when a book suspects arbing), you're exposed on the other side.
Withdrawal friction. With multiple sportsbook accounts required, managing deposits and withdrawals across accounts adds logistical friction.
Is It Worth Pursuing?
For most recreational bettors: no. The returns are modest (1-3% per event), the operational complexity is high, and account longevity is short.
A better alternative is positive expected value (+EV) betting — finding bets where the no-vig fair odds show you have positive edge, even without locking in the other side. It's less guaranteed but more scalable over time.
[Find +EV bets and track your edge with Oddible →]
